Pimsy LLM

Prediction Markets

Beta

Implied probabilities, resolution criteria and cross-market comparison.

Prediction markets are read as probability estimates with costs and caveats attached — not as oracles.

What the tooling provides#

  • Current implied probability, with spread and traded depth.
  • The full resolution criteria and the resolution source, quoted verbatim.
  • Historical probability series with volume context.
  • Cross-venue comparison for equivalent questions, flagging definition differences.

Interpretation rules#

FactorEffect on interpretation
Thin liquidityPrice may reflect one participant, not a market view
Wide spreadThe midpoint overstates precision
Ambiguous resolution textThe market may not price the question you think it prices
Long time to resolutionCapital cost biases prices toward the middle
Venue restrictionsParticipant pool may be unrepresentative

Last updated 2026-09-08